I’ve heard it said that success is a choice, it is not a coin flip. I think about that when I consider the odds of anyone starting kung fu and going on to earn a black belt. The statistical odds of achieving black belt rank are very low. The actual number varies depending upon the sample group and survey parameters but the range typically comes in at between 0.5% and 2%. While these odds may bolster the ego of those who achieve the rank, they are pretty discouraging for those just starting out.
I see a couple of problems with those statistics. First, in my opinion, the statistical analysis should not be comparing the numbers of those who begin training to those who achieve black belt but rather the number of those who begin training to those who do not quit. Every school and every style have their own grading parameters and the different standards are reflected by the range in the various study results. Since black belt is not the end but rather another beginning, the results would be more meaningful and applicable across all schools and styles if they reflected the ratio of those starting to those still training. That would definitely bring the percentage even lower and be more reflective of a common problem within the martial arts: most people do not understand what a black belt means. If everyone did you would see the success ratio rise substantially and you would see fewer non-training black belts.
The second problem with the results of the published statistics is that they imply that success is based upon more than a personal choice. It isn’t. Black belt rank is a 50/50 probability. Either you choose to achieve it or you choose not to. Either you are going to make it priority and invest the time and effort required or you will choose not to. It is always a choice. If you don’t believe me, compare the number of 8 year olds who quit school to the number of 16 year olds who quit school. Failure rate goes up with the freedom to make a personal choice.
Choosing the easy way is, well, easy. A person can convince themselves a hundred different ways into a decision, especially when one prioritizes wants over needs. I know of no one who did not realize a benefit when they applied themselves to their kung fu. You would think that type of guaranteed return on investment would pretty much ensure that everyone who began training would end up achieving a black belt. Unfortunately it is easier to choose to quit than it is to keep on going.
Many may disagree with my assessment but I hope a few are inspired by the logic it contains. Success is a matter of personal choice.
“If there is anything in your life that is not the way you want it to be, you and only you are responsible for changing it. You must believe that it is up to you to create solutions to the challenges of life. Whether they are big or small, you’re still responsible. Each time you give an excuse, you diminish your respect, your credibility, and your integrity. Each time you make an excuse, you reinforce your propensity to make even more excuses in the future, and excuse making becomes a habit.” - Tommy Newberry